America’s murder crisis not as hopeless as many believe
New data shows killings are falling and heavily concentrated, suggesting the broader picture is less bleak than panicking headlines imply
For those Americans who live in murder hot spots inside of the United States, life may seem like a daily reenactment of the O.K. Corral shootout. But surprising as it may be, the bulk of the nation is relatively safe from such violence.
The US breathed a huge sigh of relief as the FIFA World Cup visited eleven American cities without any serious acts of violence or murder. But perhaps that should come as no surprise as murder rates in the country have been tumbling for decades, while most of the killing is occurring in a tiny swath of the country. In fact, America is currently enjoying its lowest murder rates – just under four murders out of 100,000 per annum – since national recordkeeping began in 1900 (by comparison, the US murder rate is about 70% higher than Canada’s 1.91 per 100,000 people in 2024 and Australia’s approximately 2 per 100,000.)
Many people get the impression that the gun-loving US is one large shooting gallery from coast to coast. And while it is certainly true that the country ranks higher than its peers in murder fatalities, the actual reality is not as bad as initially believed. First of all, as already mentioned, murders have been on a steady decline for the last several years. The numbers have gone from roughly 21,846 in 2022 to 19,677 in 2023, and about 16,924 in 2024. Second, murders are largely concentrated within a small number of urban neighborhoods, concrete islands of brutal violence. And while that may make life a living hell for those who happen to reside in those areas, the majority of Americans and those who visit the country rarely come face-to-face with that nightmarish reality.
New research by John R. Lott, the head of the Crime Prevention Research Center indicates that “the worst 1% of counties (the worst 31 counties) have 20% of the population and 41% of the murders. The worst 2% of counties (63 counties) contain 30% of the population and 54% of the murders. The worst 5% of counties contain 46% of the population and account for 71% of murders. But even within those counties the murders are very heavily concentrated in small areas within those counties.”
In fact, it may come as a surprise that 53% of US counties experience zero murders in a typical year, while another 16% record only one murder. Taken as a whole, these 69% of counties account for a mere 3% of all murders nationwide.
Furthermore, the 31 counties with the highest murder rates – just 1% of all US counties – contain about 20% of the nation’s population but account for 41% of all murders. Expanding the analysis to the 63 highest-rate counties (2% of counties) captures 30% of the population but 54% of all murders.
Media coverage, however, has distorted the reality as it conveys the notion that murderers are average suburbanites who suddenly fall off the deep edge. Sort of like the 1999 Columbine School shooting, which saw high school seniors Eric Harris and Dylan Klebold murder 13 students and one teacher. Yet overall, the evidence tells a different story. Those people who commit murder almost always have an extensive criminal record, like, for example, gang members and hardened life criminals – individuals who grew up in brutal circumstances. According to the latest data, about 90% of murderers already have criminal records, while the remaining 10% almost certainly committed crimes before the homicide but had not yet been apprehended by the authorities.
The individuals responsible for murders also differ dramatically across demographic categories, and it is the black community that registers by far the highest rate of murder in the country. The black homicide victimization rate has been recorded at approximately 21.3 to 22.4 per 100,000 people, with young black males experiencing the highest rates in the vast majority of cases. Meanwhile, 90% of black murder victims are murdered by other blacks. Black males, who make up about 6.5% of the total US population, commit roughly half of all homicides in the United States, according to federal crime statistics.
By comparison, white men and Hispanics made up about 30% of the population but were responsible for 35% of murders. The homicide victimization rate for Asian Americans in the US is also very low, measured at approximately 1.4 per 100,000 persons.
At the time of the 2020 murder of George Floyd at the hands of a white police officer, the Democrats looked at the lopsided murder figures and argued it proved the justice system is inherently racist against black people. In other words, as the crazy argument goes, if only law enforcement would stop apprehending blacks the crime rate would go down, artificially, and everyone would sleep better at night.
Should police officers stop arresting blacks who are guilty of murder and other crimes so as not to appear racist? That wouldn’t make much sense, of course, but that is the madness the American people were heading towards in 2020. Many people, however, had a change of attitude towards the police during the Black Lives Matter protests as protesters in Seattle organized a no-police zone known as the Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone (CHAZ). At the beginning everything seemed like a new ‘summer of love’, but soon, after just 23 days, the experiment broke down into murder and mayhem and the protesters were forced to – yes – call in law enforcement.
Fortunately, it appears that logical thinking is making a comeback as people begin to understand that it is senseless to blame the authorities for just doing their jobs. With any luck, the inhabitants of America’s toughest neighborhoods will continue to understand the importance of robust law enforcement in their lives, thereby enjoying a resurgence of safe community living and a further drop in the murder rate.
